Consultancy Contract for “Desk Review on Economy in Moldova”
Tender Notice: RFP/ROMO/CO/23/025
Consultancy Contract for “Desk Review on Economy in Moldova”
The Norwegian Refugee Council is soliciting bids from reputable providers, for a Consultancy Agreement for Desk Review on Economy in Moldova. The finals expected outputs are as follows:
- Review research questions in TOR and map existing sources of evidence
- Conduct research/interviews / desk review by consultancy firm
- Identify contrasting data from existing data sources that shows socioeconomic impact
- Desk Review of Moldova Economy
- 10–12 page policy brief
- Presentation Deck with main context elements, key findings, recommendations
The procedure for applying for this tender:
- Please request the tendering documents by submitting an email request to: email@example.com in order to request the Tender documents (Invitation to Bid).
- The email subject should be RFP/ROMO/CO/23/025.
- NRC will reply to your email with an attachment includes the following:
- Request for Proposal (RFP).
- Annex 3 – Bidder response document
- Annex 4 – Ethical Standards Declaration
- Once you receive these files, please do the following:
- Review the requirements carefully.
- Complete all the requirements highlighted and listed in the RFP file.
- Submit all the documents back to one of the below options:
- (scanned) the email: firstname.lastname@example.org
the email subject must be RFP/ROMO/CO/23/025 OR
- In a sealed envelope to the address:
Moldova - Chisinau, Blvd. Stefan cel Mare 196, 2nd floor / postal code: MD-2004
The envelope should be sealed.
The envelope should be stamped / signed.
Write the (RFP) tender reference RFP/ROMO/CO/23/025 on the envelope from outside.
- Please read the files carefully and follow the steps and requirements.
- For any inquires you can send an email with your questions to email@example.com and NRC will reply with answers.
- The deadline for any inquiries related to this tender is 25th May 2023 at 16:00 PM Moldova time.
- Complete and review all your documents and make sure that nothing is missing as requested in the RFP Checklist.
- The deadline for submission of the tender documents is 3rd June 2023 23:00 PM Moldova time.
* Annex 1 - Terms of Reference
Desk Review of Socio-economic Impact on Moldova Economy Since the War in Ukraine
16 May 2023
NRC Moldova is working to support refugees and host communities in Moldova impacted by the war in Ukraine.
As one of Europe’s poorest countries, Moldova’s economy has been vulnerable to economic stress driven by the
war in Ukraine. Inflation reached a record high of 34% by the end of 2022 while Moldova’s reliance on Russia
for gas has contributed an energy crisis in the country.
1 NRC’s response in Moldova supports refugees and the most vulnerable in host communities. These groups are
highly susceptible to the socio-economic impacts of economic decline in Moldova which has worsened in the
past year. 2 While the war in Ukraine is not the sole cause of Moldova’s economic stress it has played a role in
increasing socio-economic vulnerability among those living in Moldova which now includes thousands of
This desk review aims to provide an overview of the socio-economic impact of Moldova’s economy since the war
in Ukraine. This will be done through understanding the Moldovan economy and its pre-existing vulnerabilities
followed by an analysis of how the war in Ukraine has increased socio-economic vulnerabilities. By doing so, this
study will establish the magnitude of worsening socio-economic impact in Moldova for refugees and vulnerable
Moldovans. With this better understanding of Moldova’s economy and the collateral impact of the Ukraine war
on vulnerable populations, NRC and other humanitarian stakeholders can better advocate for durable support
to refugees and vulnerable Moldovan communities.
2. Scope and Design
This desk review seeks to describe the outlook of the impact of Ukrainian crisis on the Moldovan economy
including on refugees and vulnerable Moldovans. This will be done by explaining features of Moldova’s
economy and identifying evidence of the socio-economic impacts on people in Moldova in the past year. This
- Overview of Moldova’s economy and the characteristics that make it vulnerable to crises.
- Identify major impacts of war in Ukraine on Moldova economy (such as gas and imports).
- Contrast available data that proves evidence of socio-economic stress in Moldova linked to the war in Ukraine. For example, comparing changes in consumption patterns for specific utilities or basic commodities that are plausibly linked to the war in Ukraine such as gas). Or the increased use of social protection mechanisms.
- Analysis of economic policy responses by Moldova government and information on donors, partners,
funding landscape for Moldova in the near future including investments by EU institutions.
1.Some further guidance on the aims: This study does not seek to establish causal evidence that the war in Ukraine is solely responsible for weakening the economy in Moldova. This desk review seeks to assess evidence beyond humanitarian programming and current assessments already existing. 3 -A emphasis on the impact on refugees and the most vulnerable host communities is appreciated throughout the study as refugees are the focus of NRC’s humanitarian programming.
There are 2 products in this study:
• Desk Review Report (not exceeding 20 pages) compiling research findings.
• One Policy Brief (not exceeding 12 pages) summarizing key findings from the desk review for public dissemination.
In addition to these two products, there are supporting outputs requested including a research design matrix,
notes of interviews, data tables, and a presentation deck. More details can be found in Annex 2 on Deliverables.
3. Research Objectives of the Study
This study will capture the context and structure of the Moldovan economy, the economic shocks from the war in Ukraine, and the socio-economic impact on people living in Moldova including refugees. This study is meant to be informative and accessible to stakeholders unfamiliar with Moldova or without an economic background. The review should brief stakeholders on three key sections: defining characteristics of Moldova’s economy, the
direct economic impact of the war in Ukraine, and identifying evidence of the socio-economic impact on the population. The following are specific research questions identified by NRC.
Characteristics of Moldova’s Economy that expose it to crises.
- Low productive growth - explained.
- Agricultural economy which is dependent on climate conditions for production as well as available labour market.
- Level of reliance on energy for economy (how does gas prices affect economic activities in Moldova).
- Remittances and informal social protection (church support, ect) dynamics.
- Moldova's political and trade relationship with world with a focus on Ukraine, Russia, and the EU
o Impact or influence of other state’s policies or influence (including potentially destabilization efforts) such as Russia or Ukraine. For instance, the ban on importing wine into Russia with a 100 million Euros loss in exports (widely considered retaliation for Moldova forming closer ties with the EU).
- Market dynamics between Moldova and Transnistria, who export goods outside of Moldova.
- Overview of the current state of Moldova Treasury reserves, debt, and international support.
Direct Impacts of Ukraine War on Moldova Economy
- Explain which imports and exports were affected and trace impact to Moldovan economy.
- Imports restricted (or stopped) from Ukraine and Russia after outbreak of war? Reportedly Moldova relied heavily on imports from Ukraine and Russia for its food and energy needs.
- Exports of Moldovan agricultural products via Odessa port.
- How did price increases in imports impact the economy (including both the impact on businesses and cascading costs to consumers). Possibly do this by identifying a few key commodities? Show if this impact affected economy twice (including markets, businesses, and consumers).
Energy Crisis Impact
- Sources of heating and energy Moldovans use (gas, wood, electricity).
- Prices of gas increases.
- Data on how consumer consumption changed (can we show people used less gas?). Was consumption of gas rates lower than average? Was price above average? Has wood consumption increased as indicated by REACH study?
- Electricity consumption?
- Map out rising utility costs in critical periods such as winter (and contrast with average income if there has been no corresponding increase in average salaries).
Inflation in Moldova
- The current rates, how does it compare to the past?
- Is inflation higher then other countries in Europe and if so suggest why.
- Can increase of inflation be linked directly to Ukraine war?
- How is inflation affecting people’s economic decisions?
- Are there government responses to inflation? Impact of policies.
Economic Context since War in Ukraine
- Local Markets changes – is there a way to show demand for goods has decreased? That local producers are less unable to exhaust their stocks? Small business operating at loss or closure?
- Are there ways to look at increases or decreases in certain sectors? Such as people working aboard, which is a commonly reference strategy for Moldovans?
- Is there evidence of positive economic contributions by refugees in Moldova specifically when they are integrated into social protection schemes? For example, are there positive additions to the economy with labour integration of refugees after Temporary Protection? This can include evidence or
suggestions of where to look for evidence in future as refugees stay longer in Moldova.
Social Protection Analysis
- Are there sources of evidence that show increased reliance on social services or external financial support?
- Trends in employment (people reporting unemployment, receiving benefits,)
- What are the national aid programmes put in place by the government?
- Labour migration and the impact on social protection mechanisms (note this may be better addresses in the economic context section as a defining feature of the economy) Policy Responses and Future Support for Moldova
- Summarize the Moldovan government’s policy responses to economic crises in Moldova since war in Ukraine.
- Map out donors and funding available to Moldova including EU institutions. With Moldovan gaining
candidacy status to the EU what funding will be allocated towards Moldova in near future and potential impact on the economy.