
Terms of Reference (ToRs): Scenario-building for Aligning Moldova’s Territorial Reintegration within EU Accession
1. Background and Rationale
The Republic of Moldova has entered a decisive phase in its European integration process, marked by the opening of EU accession negotiations and a strong political mandate in favour of EU membership. Despite this favourable context, the unresolved issue of territorial reintegration—particularly the Transnistrian conflict—continues to raise political, security, and institutional challenges that may affect Moldova’s accession trajectory.
While reintegration could strengthen sovereignty, border control, and economic competitiveness, its continued absence poses risks to governance, the rule of law, and the credibility of accession commitments. The limitations of the “Cyprus model” have further intensified debates, in both Moldova and the EU, on whether accession and reintegration should be pursued sequentially, in parallel, or as interlinked processes.
Against this backdrop, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung is launching a tender to commission a structured, forward-looking analysis exploring realistic scenarios for aligning Moldova’s EU accession agenda with its territorial reintegration policies.
2. Overall Objective
The overall objective of the project is to develop a scenario-based policy paper that informs stakeholders in Moldova and the European Union about plausible trajectories for aligning Moldova’s EU accession process with territorial reintegration efforts.
The project aims to:
• Broaden strategic and policy thinking on the interaction between EU accession and territorial reintegration;
• Identify risks, opportunities, and trade-offs associated with different sequencing and alignment options;
• Provide Moldovan and EU decision-makers with evidence-based scenarios and actionable policy recommendations;
• Draw comparative insights from Cyprus’s experience before and after EU accession, while grounding conclusions in Moldova’s political, institutional, and socio-economic realities.
3. Scope of Work
The assignment is structured around two interlinked components:
Component I: Stakeholder Consultations and Insights Gathering
This component focuses on structured consultations with key stakeholders in Moldova and Cyprus to capture institutional perspectives, policy constraints, and practical lessons related to EU accession and territorial reintegration.
Component II: Comparative Insights from Cyprus
As part of the Scope of Work, the Contractor shall undertake a comparative analytical component focused on Cyprus’s experience with territorial division before and after its accession to the European Union in 2004. This component aims to extract policy-relevant lessons applicable to the Moldovan context, while clearly distinguishing transferable insights from context-specific factors.This component will include:
• analytical review of Cyprus’s pre-accession and post-accession reintegration dynamics, with particular attention to governance, institutional constraints, and political incentives;
• structured exchanges with Cypriot stakeholders during the study visit, including public officials, academics, and civil society representatives with expertise in EU integration and conflict settlement;
• systematic comparison between the Cypriot and Moldovan contexts, ensuring that conclusions are grounded in Moldova’s political, institutional, and socio-economic realities.
All costs related to this comparative component, including travel, accommodation, meeting logistics, and organisational expenses associated with the study visit to Cyprus, shall be covered by the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.
Component III: Development of a Scenario-Based Policy Paper
This component focuses on the preparation of the project’s main analytical output: a scenario-based policy paper. The paper will translate analytical findings into policy-relevant conclusions and recommendations for Moldovan and EU stakeholders.
4. Deliverables
The expected deliverables under this assignment are:
A Scenario-Based Policy Paper with policy-relevant conclusions and recommendations for Moldovan and EU stakeholders.
5. Duration and Timeline
The assignment is expected to be conducted in the period of 1 March- 30 June 2026. A detailed timeline will be agreed with the winning organisation/ group of experts during the inception phase.
6. Required Expertise
The assignment may be carried out by an NGO, an individual expert, or a group of experts with demonstrated expertise in:
• EU enlargement and accession processes, including EU governance and reform conditionality in candidate and neighbouring countries;
• Conflict settlement and territorial reintegration, including experience with frozen conflicts and divided societies;
• Political, institutional, and socio-economic analysis of the Republic of Moldova and the Eastern Partnership region;
• Scenario-building and forward-looking policy analysis, including comparative and risk-based approaches;
• Stakeholder consultation and qualitative research methods involving public authorities, diplomats, and civil society actors;
• Drafting policy-oriented analytical papers for decision-makers and international audiences, in English.
7. Reporting and Coordination
The Contractor will report to the Friedrch-Ebert-Stiftung (FES) and work in close coordination with the latter. Key deliverables will be reviewed and validated by FES.
8. Application Requirements
Interested applicants shall submit both a Technical Proposal and a Financial Proposal in English.
8.1 Technical Proposal – Requirements
Applicants are requested to submit a Technical Proposal demonstrating their understanding of the assignment and their capacity to deliver the expected outputs in line with these Terms of Reference.
The Technical Proposal should include the following elements:
1. Approach and Understanding of the Assignment A concise description of the applicant’s understanding of the objectives, scope, and policy relevance of the assignment, including the challenges related to aligning Moldova’s EU accession process with territorial reintegration policies.
2. Methodology and Analytical Framework A description of the proposed methodology and of the policy paper structure.
3. Implementation Plan and Timeline A proposed implementation plan outlining key activities, milestones, and deliverables, aligned with the indicative timeline set out in the Terms of Reference.
4. Team Composition and Allocation of Tasks Information on the proposed team, including:
o CVs of expert/s
o roles and responsibilities of the team members;
o division of tasks and coordination arrangements;
o brief indication of the level of involvement of each expert.
5. Quality Assurance
A brief description of the measures foreseen to ensure the analytical quality, coherence, and timely delivery of the assignment.
Submission Format
• The Technical Proposal should be concise and should not exceed 3 pages, excluding CVs.
• CVs of proposed experts should be attached as an annex.
8.2 Financial Proposal
The Financial Proposal shall include:
• Number of working days, daily fee rates, and total costs;
• The total financial offer expressed in EUR.
Applicants should ensure that the Financial Proposal is fully consistent with the Technical Proposal.
8.3 Evaluation Criteria
Proposals shall be evaluated based on the following indicative criteria:
• Technical quality and methodology, including relevant experience and expertise – 65%
• Financial offer and cost-effectiveness – 35%
9. Application Deadline and Submission
Please submit your Technical and Financial Proposals no later than:
Deadline: 20 February 2026
Applications shall be submitted electronically by email to: fes.moldova@fes.de
The subject line of the email should clearly indicate: “Scenario-building for Aligning Moldova’s Territorial Reintegration within EU Accession”
Late submissions will not be considered. FES reserves the right to request clarifications or additional information from shortlisted applicants.
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